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Trade Down?
By TOMMarch 16th, 2009 |
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Okay Patsfans here I go again, trying to be the most hated man in Patriot's Nation;-) When it's time for the Pats to pick, I think the Pats should trade down. There is so much value in this Draft. With no 3rd Round pick, trading down in the 1st to pick up a 3rd makes a lot of sense. I say this with the caveat that Brandon Graham or Mike Iupati are not on the board. It is starting to look more and more like Graham will not be on the board. With Seattle, Titans, and Falcons, all openly looking for D-End passrushers and picking just before the Pats. Miami and 49ers (twice), openly looking for OLB/PassR and picking before the Pats, and don't forget the Jets who love to trade up for a targeted player, all these teams could be picking before the Pats. In fact, in my next Mock Draft I will probably be giving Graham to Atlanta. The reason is, and even if Graham and Mike Iupati are on |
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the Board, there is so much talent between 22 and 50, that they can pick up an impact player and still get an extra pick. Most so-called Draft experts have been saying that most teams have 1st Round grades on 50 players, as compared to less than 20 last year. Well let me just say that I have been saying since December that this is one of the best Draft's I have seen in a while. I was the first to say this is a great Draft (thank you, thank you, thank you very much;-) So what does that mean to the Pats? It means, what if at 22 there are ten guys BB has rated just about equal? That means they could trade down at least ten spots and still get one of them. - |
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Remember, it was trading down that garnered BB 4 picks in the 2nd Round last year, and 3 picks in the 2nd this year. That is a lot of talent to spread around. I have heard complaints that they should have taken Michael Oher at 23 last year. I disagree. Would you rather have Michael Oher or Sebastian Vollmer? Remember, Vollmer was Drafted at the end of the 2nd rather than near the end of the 1st, and receives millions less on the Salary Cap. Plus, the Pats traded down twice from 22. First with the Ravens to 26, and received a 5th round pick. They next sent both picks the received from the Ravens to Green Bay for pick number 41 (Darrius Butler), pick #73, and pick number 83 (Brandon Tate). This gave them 4 picks in the 2nd Round and four picks in the 3rd Round. Because they had four picks in the 3rd they were |
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able to trade pick 89 to
the Titans for the #48 pick in this years Draft. BB then traded pick #73,
he received from Atlanta, for pick 232 (Julian Edelman), and the Jags 2nd
Round Pick this year Draft, #44. Okay, I think that's it. So because BB
knew he could get Vollmer with his last pick in the second round, remember
Vollmer was BB's guy. BB went and watched him at the East-West Shrine
game, and decided he was the guy he wanted in the Draft. Since no one
had Vollmer rated above the 3rd Round, he new he could get him at the end
of the 2nd. Eugene Chung was Nick Caserio's guy, as he explained to us at
his post draft talk at the Hall at Patriots Place last May, about both
Vollmer and Chung. They knew on one had him rated above the 2nd Round and
they could get him with the 34th pick. So they were able to trade out of
the 1st Round, still get the two players they coveted, Vollmer (a starting
OLT talent, who once the the Matt Light situation is resolved, will be
starting at OLT for a long time for this team) and Chung (A special Teams
Maven, and a player who I think is going to take a huge step forward, and
will be hard to keep out of the starting line up next season), and picked
up Darius Butler (who should be starting for this team next season and for
a long time), Brandon Tate (a dynamic playmaker with a bum knee), Julian
Edelman (as long as Wes is limping Julian is starting;-), and two 2nd
Round Picks in this years Draft #44 and #48. Those two picks could turn
into Jerry Hughes and Jahvid Best, or Golden Tate (please) and Ryan
Mathews (please), or Jared Odrick and Jermaine Grisham (okay not so likely
with those two;-).
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| Okay so the question about whether you wanted Oher or Vollmer and all the players who cam along with him was a little disingenuous, because there is no real choice. The real question is would you take Clay Mathew over Darius Butler, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, and picks #44 and #48 in this years Draft? Okay, I admit I am torn. However, I certainly didn't think Clay Mathews was going to be as good as he was last season. Plus, because of the quality of the quantity, two starters (Butler and Edelman), an injured WR who I still think is more of an impact player than Edelman, and two 2nd Round picks in an impact player laden Draft (and who I think BB will get two |  |
| starters out of these two picks), I have to go with the trade down. Now it's close, if we had Mathews on one side and TB-C on the other, we wouldn't have traded for Burgess (3rd Round), and who knows how good our defense would have looked with another passrusher opposite TB-C. Tough Call, and we really won't be able to say until April 26th or 27th. Of course if they stayed at 26, there is no guarantee that they take Mathews. I'm telling you Eugene Chung was the guy they really liked, and they could have very easily taken him at 26. I think they were all set to Larry English at 22, and Chung at 34, and when English was ripped from their grip, they decided no on else fit their system and decided to trade down. So in the short run it probably hurt them last year, but in the long run it could turn into 4 fulltime starters and two part-time starters, for one starter and a 3rd Round pick. So in the long run you have to go with the 6 players/4 starters, even though the passrush was so bad last year that my balls still hurt;-) | |
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| Okay, so why trade down now? Well, because of all the trading down they did last year and the quality of players in this years Draft, BB is in position to get 4 impact players. Wouldn't it be nice to have a shot at 5 or 6? If the Pats have fifty players on the board rated as 1st Round talent they are in line for a big score. Now I can't say they do for certain, but 50 players seem to be the consensus through out the League. Remember that each team rates players different, and the likely hood of all 50 players the Patriots have rated as 1st Round talents going 1 though 50 is simply not possible. The Pats will have players they see as 1st Round talent available in the 3rd, and maybe even in the 4th (Tony Moeaki;-). An average team hits about 50% of the time, so if you Draft 6 player you think are impact players, most likely 3 are going to work out, if you have | .jpg) |
| four or more, like last year's horrible trade-down-Draft, you had a great Draft. So if the have four pick they need to turn into at lest 2 picks. I would take the risk with the extra players. Especially if you consider the depth of this Draft, and who they will be looking at. When they are picking at 22, Brandon Graham, Mike Iupati, Jermaine Gresham, Golden Tate, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best, Jared Odrick (My top rated 3-4 D-End), Brandon Spikes, Devin McCourty, Maurice Pouncey (OG/OC), Mardy Gilyard, and Jerry Hughes. If you trade down ten picks, you are still guaranteed to get one of these impact players, and pick up a 3rd or another 2nd, and still get one of these player a #44, and maybe #48. Suppose the Graham and Iupati are gone, and Demaryius Thomas is still on the board, the Cowboys think the Ravens or the Cards are going to grab him? So BB trades down with the Cowboys to 27 and get their 3rd (I think #92) in return. They take Thomas, as they are desperate for a WR to put across from Miles. Then Jared Odrick (Plus, Golden Tate and Jermaine Gresham) drop to #27. Jerry Hughes drops to #44. Jahvid Best drops to #48. Marty Gilyard (WR) drops to #53. And maybe Tony Moeaki (my 2nd rated 3-4 T-End) drops to #92, and Sheffield O'Brien (another passrushing DE/OLB who hurt his knee at the Senior Bowl) drops to #118. Is it worth the risk? Is it even a risk? I think if there are still ten to twelve players you could happily take a 22 still on the board, you have to trade down. | |
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