Justin Herbert

QB Oregon

6-6, 233, 

#10

Fighting For First Overall. 

By TOM

The QB's first job is to convert 3rd Downs. If you can't convert on 3rd and 4th down you will lose. In the NFL, QB's have to convert. "I think we did some good things, also some bad things," Herbert said after the Bowling Green game. "We’ll get into it tonight, and we’ll look at it tomorrow. Definitely some stuff we can clean up." When they convert they win. When they don't they lose, and it is their fault. 

You have to remember that Oregon ran a ton last year. They rushed for 3,566-yards (3,263 total yards), and 40 TDs! Those are huge numbers. So he didn't have to own all the responsibility for the offense. He just had to convert a couple of 3rd downs, and they would score seemingly at will.

He didn't start out great in the first game, but somewhere in between. "I think at times we moved the ball really well," Herbert said after the Bowling Green game. " At times things were clicking and the defense was playing really good defense, and we kind of feed off each other. For a short moment there, we were playing really good football. If we could stretch that out for a complete game I think we could be a really good team." A 47.2 completion percentage is not going to cut it. 

Consistency is almost as important as 3rd downs, because both lead to wins. He threw for five TDs, which is great. But he also threw for 2 INTs against Bowling Green, and completed less than 50% of his passes. Plus, he was only 3 for 8 on passes over 20-yards. Which is not good the way he throws the deep ball. He usually throws a great deep ball. 

I don't like running QBs in the NFL. However, I do like judicious QBs who know when to run: when the pocket breaks down, and when to slide, or get out of bounds. He showed he could be judicious with how, when, and where he leaves the pocket. Then he talked about sliding and getting down more this off season. 

He has to affect the win-loss columns better. He has a losing record as a starter (12 and 14)."Herbert is now fully healthy and is also a relentless competitor," Phil Steele said. "He works behind an offense I rated No. 12 and is one of the top quarterback prospects for the 2019 NFL draft." He has terrific arm talent, but he has to put it together mentally. 

He has to play better in the important moments and situations on the field. "32. New England Patriots -- Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon*," Dane Brugler mocked. "Despite missing almost half of last season with a broken collarbone, there is plenty of optimism surrounding Herbert as a pro prospect as he enters his junior season in 2018." He has so much talent that is still a little uncultivated. 

I love the comparison to Tannehill (who was a little uncultivated coming out), but I think he has more potential than Tannehill (he is a better thrower than Tannehill). "I see a taller version of Ryan Tannehill when he was coming out of Texas A&M," Jeremiah wrote. "Both guys are exceptional athletes with the arm talent to make every throw. However, Tannehill wasn't a finished product coming out of college, and I think we'll be saying the same about Herbert whenever he moves on to the next level." He has to take a step up or two up this season.

I don't see how he won't. However, the run game will not be elite this season. His play against Bowling Green was worrisome. Bowling Green is not anywhere near the SEC. "There's maybe three: Herbert, Drew Lock, and the Auburn kid," a scout said. "Who look like dudes. But there are a lot—a lot—of issues here. I'm terrified of this class. I hope everyone got their guy last year." Both Lock and the Auburn kid Stidham, are better on 3rd down.

But I thought Herbert was excellent after taking a big hit. "We were back to getting explosive plays that this offense thrives on," Taggart said. "Those explosive plays really help our rushing attack. Get a nice pass play downfield and follow it up with run with a nice tempo, it always helps our team. That's kind of the way it was earlier this year. It was good to have Herbert back." They like to run-run-run the ball, and throw deep over the top.

So he will get hit, as he waits in the pocket for his guys to get open over the top. "In the weight room, I try to go check on the offensive linemen or the receivers and see how they're doing," Herbert said. "We're all getting way more comfortable with each other. It makes it so much easier to address them in workouts and say, 'This is what we need to do.'" He has to play better if he wants to be the top pick in the Draft than he did against Bowling Green.

Herbert Vs Arizona.

I had him 1 for 3 on 3rd downs against Arizona, and down 7. Then he went 2 for 3 on 3rd down and was up seven in the 3rd. He converted another 3rd down to go 4 for 7 in the first three quarters, and got a FG to put his team up 10 going into the 4th. 

Then a wacky flea flicker ended the game. 

Herbert Vs Arizona:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhH13CZtI3s

 Herbert Vs Oregon ST.

Against Oregon St, he only had to go 2 for 2 on 3rd down in the 1st Quarter to put them up 17-7. He will be under a ton more pressure in the NFL. He only had to go 4 for 5 on 3rd down in the First Half to put them up 52 to 7. 

This game was his best at converting 3rd downs with his arm.

Herbert Vs Oregon ST:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4XlqQMFAtw

Herbert Vs Boise ST:

Against Boise he started out 0 for 2 on 3rd down, with a fumble to put them down 14-Zip. He didn't convert his first 3rd throwing, until just under 8-mintes in the 2nd Quarter. But then went 0 for 2 on 3rd down with 2 INTs, and Oregon was suddenly down 31-Zip. Not converting on 3rd down is a turnover (if you don't kick a FG, or convert on 4th down;). 

He converted two 1st downs, and the score was 31 to 14. He had another conversion on 3rd-down in the 4th, but it was dropped. However, he converted on 4th-down (but he had to scramble out of the pocket, and did not throw it). The next throw was for a TD to put them down-10, at 31 to 21.

Without the conversion there is no TD. He converted on 4th and Goal at the Eight to get them within Three, but time was up. 

Herbert Vs Boise:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edylhy8tKq8

Herbert Vs Arizona ST:

1st and 10, he dinks and dunks a lot to start games, and his first throw tended to be a screen pass, or a fake screen pass (:01). That was a nice accurate throw past the big DL (:10). You can see he has the arm and the accuracy (:16). They like that fake screen. He hit his receiver, but it was a little high again (:24). He seemed to throw a little high in the beginning of games. 

3rd and 6 and in the Redzone. He has the time and threw a beauty. I like how he put it outside the body away from the defender. That throw was suppose to be in the front, tight into the defender. But he threw it a little behind his WR, so the defender couldn't make a play on the ball (:34). 1 for 1 on 3rd down, and 1 for 1 converting. 

I hate QB options. Whew, he slid (:52). 3rd and 8, he got sacked, which made him 1 for 2 converting (1:06). What the hell is he doing? Throw the damn ball. Ah jeez (1:14)! Throw the damn ball, or end up with Butt-Fumble part two (1:20). Although the Butt Fumble part two did lead to a nice 3rd and 9. He got pressure from a free rusher, and threw a terrible pass (1:27). 1 for 2 on 3rd down, and 1 for 3 converting. 

He looked like he went left to right to his 3rd option (1:36). It looked like he went left to right to his 3rd option again, but it might have been his second. He doesn't seem to read the safety at all (1:41). Alright Justin, 3rd and 6, and your team needs one. He looked left and then hit the tight end going down the seam with a beautiful floater (1:27). 2 for 3 on 3rd down, and 2 for 4 converting. 

He couldn't find anyone. So he took off, and slid down smartly (2:14). He certainly has an NFL arm. That is a great throw (2:25). 3rd and a Magnificent Seven, that is a tough one. He went to his third option (I can only read his head turns;). He hit his WR in the hands. He dropped it. But, he also put the ball where he got his guy killed (2:35). 2 for 4 on 3rd down, and 2 for 5 converting. 

He ran a nice play action, but over threw the WR as the rusher was coming (2:41). 3rd and 16, and he really needs a conversion. This is a tough one. Anything over 10-yards is tougher than the rest. He locked onto one side, and stared down his WR going down the Seam. The pass was there, but the defender was able to read his stare down, and knock it down (2:50). 2 for 5 on 3rd down, and 2 for 6 converting. These are not good numbers for an NFL QB.

I hate option runs. But that was a nice head smash on the ground by Herbert (3:28). This was the next play after the hit, and dribbling his helmet off the turf. Nice! He threw for a TD after the big hit (3:36). 1 for 1 for a TD after a big hit, to bring them with in 10.

3rd and 8, and his team desperately needs a conversion. I don't know what that was (3:58). 2 for 6 on 3rd down, and 2 for 7 converting. 

He does have a nose for the Endzone. He is having a terrible game. Maybe his worst of the season. However, you get him in the Redzone and fires a bullet to his WR for the score to get them within 3 (4:06). That was a great clutch throw.

I hate the Option. Just watch the QB and RB fight over the ball, just as they finally got back in the game, and lost it (4:18). He takes a hit in the Option. This is the next play. He completed it for the First, and gave his WR some room to run (4:34). 2 for 2 after a big hit to convert.

He has throw better in the face of pressure (4:42). He takes another hit on the option run, and now it is 3rd down (4:49). 3rd and 7 after a hit, that was a beautiful throw in the face of pressure. He put it softly where only his WR could catch it, but he dropped it (4:56). 3 for 8 on 3rd down, and 3 for 9 converting. 2 for 3 after a big hit to convert (but it should be 3 for 3;).

That is a nice throw off the play action (5:38). I hate the option, but that Option run put them on the one. That was a great comeback in the 3rd and 4th (5:49). But now they're down again. That was a terrible throw. 

Nice throw away that led to a late hit (6:05). Keep it on the sideline in the 2-minute drill if you can (6:12). Herbert holds on instead of throwing it away (6:19). You have to toss that one to the cheer leaders. 

Now we got 3rd and 12, He completed the pass that would have been a First if he had thrown it to the cheer leaders on 1st down. Now it is short and brings up 4th down. 3 for 9 on 3rd down, and 3 for 10 converting (6:28). But now we get to see a 4th down (which is even better than a 3rd down;). He doesn't throw and he doesn't convert (6:35). 3 for 9 on 3rd and 4th downs, and 3 for 11 converting. Those are just dreadful numbers for a QB. 

Then he misses another 3rd down conversion and a 4th down conversion on the final drive. So the idea that he is a lock Number One Overall pick is a bit much for me. He has to convert on 3rd down. Not converting on 3rd down got his team in a hole. 

Then he started converting on 3rd down, and brought them back. Then he stopped converting and gave away the game. It is as simple as that. 

Herbert Vs Arizona ST:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrHISFN-i88

Herbert's Official Bio:

AS A JUNIOR (2018): Preseason:
» Davey O’Brien Award Watch List
» Maxwell Award Watch List
» Wuerffel Trophy Watch List
» Lindy’s All-Pac-12 second team
» Phil Steele All-Pac-12 second team
» Athlon Sports All-Pac-12 third team
» NFL.com No. 4 Player to Watch in 2018
» Lindy’s Strongest Arm in the Pac-12
» Lindy’s No. 8 Quarterback
» Street & Smith’s Best Under Pressure in the Pac-12
» No. 61 on Sports Illustrated Top 100 Players
AS A SOPHOMORE (2017):
» CoSIDA Academic All-America first team
» CoSIDA Academic All-District 8
» Academic All-Pac-12 first team
» Pro Football Focus All-Pac-12 first team
» Two-Time Pro Football Focus Pac-12 Team of the Week (Week 1 & 4)
» Davey O’Brien “Great 8” (Week 2)
» Offensive Team MVP
» Academic Excellence Award 
Started eight games and missed five games due to injury … Led the team to a 6-2 record thanks to 49.1 points and 516.5 total yards per game as the starter … Threw a touchdown pass in all eight games played and extended his streak to 15 … Threw for 1,983 yards and in the process became the fastest player in program history to reach 3,000 career passing yards (13 games) … Accounted for 20 touchdowns (15 passing, 5 rushing) … Finished with a passer rating of 167.52, which would have ranked No. 4 nationally if he met the minimum games played … Completed 67.5 percent (139-of-206) of his passes … Completed 60 percent of his passes or better in six of eight games … Averaged 247.9 yards passing per game … Tied for the Pac-12 lead and ranked seventh nationally with seven completions of 50+ yards … Had a 50-yard completion in seven of eight contests … Rushed for 183 yards and five touchdowns … Had a passing and rushing TD in the same game five times … Threw for eight TDs and one INT in Pac-12 action … Extended his streak to 139 consecutive passes without an INT on the road in Pac-12 play … vs. Southern Utah (Sept. 2): Completed 17-of-21 passes for 281 yards and a TD … vs. Nebraska (Sept. 9): Third career 300-yard passing game featured 311 yards and three TDs in the first half … Finished with 365 yards through the air on 25-of-33 attempts … Named to the Davey O’Brien “Great 8” the following week … at Arizona State (Sept. 23): Put together second three-TD passing performance in the opening month … Threw for 281 yards while adding 36 yards and a TD on the ground … vs. Arizona (Nov. 18): First start following the injury … Returned to throw for 235 yards and a score while adding a career-long 40-yard TD run … vs. Oregon State (Nov. 25): Accounted for four TDs with three passing and his fifth straight game played with a rushing TD.
AS A FRESHMAN (2016):
» Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week (Week 9)
» Manning Award Quarterback of the Week (Week 9)
» Manning Award “Stars of the Week” (Week 9 & 12)
» Davey O’Brien “Great 8” (Week 9)
» 247Sports Freshman of the Week (Week 9)
» Athlon Freshman of the Week (Week 9)
» Len Casanova Award (Team’s Best First-Year Player)
Became the first true freshman at Oregon to start at quarterback since 1983 … Made seven starts … Finished third in the Pac-12 with a passer rating of 148.75 … Accounted for 21 touchdowns (19 passing, 2 rushing) … One of four FBS quarterbacks with at least 15 TD passes and less than five interceptions … Completed 63.5 percent (135-of-259) of his passes for 1,936 yards … Equaled the school record for most touchdown passes thrown in a three-game stretch with 12, matching Marcus Mariota (2012) and Joey Harrington (2000) ... Set or equaled the program single-game records for total yards (512), passing yards (489) and touchdown passes (6) … Had a pair of 300-yard passing games … vs. No. 5 Washington (Oct. 8): Made first career start and completed 21-of-34 for 179 yards and two TDs … at California (Oct. 21): Tied the program single-game record for most touchdown passes with six … Threw for five TDs in the second half and overtime … Finished 22-of-40 for 258 yards … vs. Arizona State (Oct. 29): Put up unprecedented numbers in third start … Set a school record for total offensive yards with 512 yards and tied the single-game passing record with 489 yards (31-of-42), which was first set in 1989 by Bill Musgrave ... Added four touchdown passes in the win … The 512 total yards ranks in the top 20 all-time in the Pac-12 … at Utah (Nov. 19): Led a come-from-behind win at Utah with four touchdowns in the final 15:27 of the game to overcome a 14-3 deficit ... Completed 6-of-9 passes for 63 yards on the final drive which was capped by a 17-yard game-winning TD pass with two seconds left.

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