Why the Pats Might Take Conner Barwin.

The Team:

As we get to within hours of the Draft I become more and more convinced the Pats number one need is ILB. I mean, if they drafted English or Barwin how much do you really think they are going to play over Woods and Crable? As long as Thomas, Woods, and Crable stay healthy, any rookie OLB is not going to play much at all, especially early. In my opinion, the less the rookie OLB has to play this season the more you want to take Barwin over English. I believe they have to acquire either Maualaga or Laurinaitis. The problem is that I can't Rey making it down to 23, and I'm not sure Laurinaitis will make it to 34. However, with English still on the board, and Clay Mathews not testing positive for steroids, it looks they will both go between 23 and 34. The only team left that really posses a threat is Atlanta and Detroit, both looking for Middle Linebackers. However, I don't think Atlanta can pass on Pettigrew, and if they do I think they are more likely to take Mathews. While Detroit needs a Middle Linebacker, I think they need a OLT more, and if Beatty is on the board at 33 they cannot pass on him. The problem with Maualaga is that Denver is desperate for a big run-stuffing ILB, and Rey is the number one prescription for that ailment. I don't see how they can pass on Rey at 18, it just won't happen. BB talked extensively about moving up in the Draft in his Predraft Press conference, which of course means that he has no intention to move up. In fact, I think he is more inclined to move down. I listed 6 players who the Pats can't pass on if they are still on the board: three of them are still on the board, and one of them (Everette Brown) is dropping like a stone and may not go in the 1st round, and I didn't list Larry English or Conner Barwin, the two players I now think they are debating over. The last thing they need however is more Draft picks. Maybe they can still the Cowboys 1st round pick for next year for this pick? Who knows? Anyway, if they stick here I now think they need to grab Conner Barwin. Sometimes potential is an mirage, and sometimes it is an oasis in the distance. Reporters love to bring up Combine Wonders, who work out like warriors at the Combine, but struggle in the NFL. They love to bring up BC's own Mike Mamula. Of course they always leave out that he: had 17 Sacks as a Senior at BC, was runner up to Warren Sapp for Big East Player of the Year, and an average career for Philly and did not bust out. Can you call a guy who 17 Sacks his senior season a Combine Wonder, or a guy who played out of position (I always thought he should have been an OLB) and couldn't adjust to the size and speed in the NFL? I think the later. Is a guy who had 31.5 Career Sacks a "Bust" or just a disappointment? What they also love to do is to conveniently leave out the Combine Wonders who succeeded in the NFL. Hell, we just signed Fred Taylor. He was the often injured RB from Florida who nobody had rated over a 3rd round pick. Then he went to the Combine and ran a 4.3 at 230 pounds and suddenly he was a top ten pick, only he worked out (pun intended), so nobody remembers him. Another Combine Wonder is Dwight Freeney. He, like Mamula, was an OLB who played D-End in college. Granted, Freeney was tougher and could play the run much better, at least in college anyway. I watched his last game at Syracuse, and he was astonishing. However, nobody had Freeney rated above a 3rd round pick. Then he goes to the Combine and runs in the 4.4s at 250 pounds, and suddenly he is a top ten pick. Nobody ever mentioned him, because he has an internal toughness that can't be taught.

Which brings me to Barwin, who said he studied film of Freeney between his junior and senior year in order to prepare for the move to D-End. He maybe closer to Mamula than Freeney, in that he us more of an OLB than a DE, and if Mamula had been drafted as a 3-4 OLB, who knows what would have happened. The only question left with Barwin is does he have the internal toughness like a Dwight Freeney? He will have to prove that, like Freeney did, in the NFL. However, he has everything else. One of the most difficult, and maybe the main aspect of scouting a player, is projecting how well he can translate his game to the NFL. If every player played in the NFL like he did in college, there would be no busts and no surprises. What makes it an inexact science is the hypothesis of how he will play in the NFL, which can be worlds apart from college. What makes Barwin so interesting is that he went from and All Big East TE as a junior to an All Big East DE as a senior. The mental and physical quickness it took to make such a huge transition gives important empirical evidence in my hypothesis (and hopefully BB's hypothesis) that he will have an easier time translating his college talents to OLB in the NFL then most college D-Ends. I mean, he watched a little film, and then became an All Big East D-End out of nowhere. "When I made the move last spring to Defensive End my D-Line coach gave me a Sack tape from the NFL with every single Sack from 2007 ," Barwin said in a recent interview on ESPN. "And really I watched and I saw how people got to the Quarterback. What I learned from that was guys like Dwight Freeney got there with unbelievable moves, but for the most part guys who just kept playing, play hard, vision the Quarterback, and slide off and make tackles. That's what I learned. That's how I play the position. Just always keep going and try to get there." If that is not empirical evidence that he will make a quick transition, than what is? He watch a film of NFL Sacks, and became an All Big East D-End. Plus, he has the size that BB always bemoans no longer exists in college D-Ends who translate to OLB in a 3-4. He is 6-4 250, and he ran a Dwight Freeney-like 4.47 at his Proday, and he plays with that speed. He will be able to speed rush around the edge, unlike English who will have to fight his way around the edge. He played Defensive End for one season, and he had: more Tackles (53 to 37), more Sacks (11 to 8), and the same number of TFL (16), and he played in a far superior conference against far superior competition. Plus, Barwin has far more experience than English playing Special Teams, and is a far superior Special Teams player. English is better and tougher at Setting the Edge, but Barwin is far superior in coverage. He is a better prospect in every aspect except experience, Setting the Edge, and function football strength, and he really isn't far behind in those areas. With some coaching, especially in using his hands, he will catches up to English quickly. Plus, when projecting a D-End to OLB, it usually takes a year or two form them to completely make the transition. Most people think English is more ready to make that transition for next season, which I question. However, how many of those people really think English will be a better pro in a year or two? I would say significantly less. I personally think Barwin will have an easier time with the intellectual transition, as he already proved last season he can make a remarkable transition with a lot less trouble than a coach could realistically expect. Plus, people always pooh-pooh speed, and then act surprise when players are drafted almost always in line with their speed. Barwin has the elite size, the elite speed, and the elite athleticism that BB dreams of when he sees an OLB in his 3-4 defense. That is awful hard to pass up, even when the player has only played defense for one year. However, with all that bing said, they could still easily take English. Here are the reasons why I think the Pats might take Larry English.

Conner Barwin:

What can you say about Conner Barwin? What is he? What position does he play? He caught 55 passes as a TE, including 31 Receptions for 399 Yards and 2 TDs as a Junior. Was name All-East Tight End. He actually looks pretty good as a TE. He runs good patterns with unexpected speed. Doesn't lose speed in his cuts, and catches the ball well. He can be a bit of body-snagger, and will sometimes allow the ball into his body or pull it against his body to catch it. To me what separates him from the rest of the 3-4 OLB prospects is that he played TE in high school and at Cincinnati for three years. That gives him such an advantage when dropping back into coverage. He knows what the TE is trying to do, because he has done it. He can recognize patterns and step in front of the ball. He can catch with his hands in coverage. Can dive in front of a player and snag the ball out of the air. He shifted to D-End as a Senior and garnered 53 TKL, 16 TFL, 7 PBU, and 11 Sacks. He plays defense with terrific speed and change of direction. He uses his long arms well to keep off smaller blockers, but can be engulfed by O-Linemen at the point, but he is a much better run defender that a converted TE should be. He is not just a pure passrusher. He shows up at the Senior Bowl and looks like the second best T-End available. Then he goes to the Combine and tests out as the best D-Linemen athletically. Amazing. Plus, he is smart, at least off the field. I don't know if it was his decision to play TE at Senior Bowl, in front of all the GMs in the NFL, and than test as a D-End at the Combine, in front of all GMs in the NFL, but it was a brilliant move. It showed his versatility to play offense and defense, and showed he understood the process. Like I said, I don't know if it was his decision or not, but it was super smart. So where does he fit? The place all this versatility can be used to the greatest advantage is as a 3-4 OLB. He plays stronger than you would think, and does a good job setting the edge. Is excellent in pass protection where his athleticism and versatility really shines through. Uses his hands well, not just as a pass catcher, but to keep blockers off his body. Very inexperienced as a defensive player, which makes what he did last season all the more impressive. He is guaranteed to make any team that drafts him, because he is a special Team Maven already. He has played on every special teams unit, and has blocked 4 kicks.