PatsDraft.Com

2016 Season Blog.

Pat Vs Bills.

7 Things For Sunday.

By TOM

Greetings Pats Fans,

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Part III.

By TOM

5. Shocked I tell you. Shocked!- I would be shocked if Garoppolo doesn't play in this game. He doesn't risk structural damage to his shoulder, and will be back on the bench for the rest of the season anyway. He might not be able to tear the Bills defense a new one, but he is certainly capable of doing more than they can handle. If he plays the Bills are in big trouble

Without Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes is a bit of a one-man band in the rush. "Yeah, he's very disruptive," BB said. "You know he plays a lot of different positions. It's hard to find him sometimes. He plays outside linebacker, he plays defensive end in some of their four-man lines. They move him around a little bit. He's on the left, he's on the right, he's on the tackle, he's out on the edge and then they loop him inside on gains and things like that, so he shows up in a lot of different spots. But very quick off the ball and quick in short spaces so even when it looks like he's blocked he is quick and athletic enough to get around guards and even centers occasionally." But he is their only reliable rusher.

They will chip and double him on passing down, and likely not just on passing down. "So yeah, and it's not just pass rush either," BB said. "He does a good job in the running game. He makes a lot of negative plays, or like I said, causes the play to be a bad play and then somebody else makes it because he forces the ball out of the gap that it's intended to go in, or makes the runner stop and redirect, or bounce out, or go somewhere where there's not a lot of blocking." Hughes will be the number one defender they key on.

They have two good ILBs who can stop the run, but really only two real impact players on defense, Hughes and Williams. "So, he is just as disruptive in the running game as he is in the passing game. kind of like [how] Kyle is," BB said. "Both guys, it's not just pass rush or run defense, it's pretty much everything; pursuit. I mean Hughes is tough on plays. He plays away, [so] you can't run away from him. That's not really the answer. But you have to block him because he'll track you down." Look for a lot of doubling down on those two guys.

There defense has really changed with the loss of their two veterans on the D-line. Kyle Williams is the one veteran in their Odd fronts that they can rely on. "At times, yeah, at times," BB said. "At times he is on the center, at times he is on the guard in a three-technique. Occasionally they've even played him at end a little bit on the tackle in a four or five-technique. More inside than outside but depending on what scheme they have, and they have multiple schemes, they move those guys around so you don't always know exactly where they're going to be." They will move him around to make it harder to focus on him.

6. Offensive Explosion- The Pats are going to try and run the ball, and shorten the game like the Bills. "Yeah, LG [LeGarrette Blount], he's had a number of games in his career here with us that he's really done a nice job of carrying the ball a few times and to be able to do that four days apart, that's always a tougher issue when you carry it a lot, and then come back and do it in the same week, four days apart, that's not easy to do," Josh said. "He does a good job of taking care of his body and trying to get himself ready to go each week, learn the game plan and get ready to go when his number is called. He's been in there a lot this year; he's carried the ball, he's pass protected, he's been involved in the passing game a little bit, so he does a lot of different things. Some show up in the stat sheets, some don't, but we've certainly counted on him a lot and he came through for us again on Thursday night." This is looking like it is going to be one quick ugly game.

If the Pats can pound the Bills defense with Blount, this game will be over early, but I don't think they can do that. "Well, I think it's their defense," BB said about the multiple looks that the Ryans love. "I don't think they're more multiple than they were last year but they're more multiple than other teams we play. But I think relative to Buffalo, they're Buffalo. They give you a lot of looks. That's what they do. They mix coverages, they mix fronts, they mix pressures, they mix coverages. So, you've got to be ready for a lot of different things that they do and different personnel groups that they do it out of. They had kind of a new personnel group last week on third-down. We've seen them use wide receivers on defense and so forth. So, they use their personnel and they use them effectively." Garoppolo needs to get hot early, then they can pound LG late.

7. Pats Win- The problem that the Bills just can’t overcome is that their offense is what it is. "It looks like it's pretty much the same," BB said. "They're a little bit of a game plan team. They usually have a couple of new wrinkles in the running game, a couple of new wrinkles in the passing game, so those showed up against Arizona, but those kind of show up from week to week anyway. I'd say it just looked like overall they played maybe a little faster, a little more aggressively with the same plays. But they do a good job of scoring whatever it was - 30-something points against the Jets. They scored a lot of points again last week. They didn't have a high-scoring week against the Ravens but the last two weeks they've put a lot of points on the board." They just don't have the weapons to hurt the Pats defense, which hurts the Bills defense as well.

The Pats can make some mistakes on offense and still beat the Bills, but the Bills cannot say the same. "They've shown it a lot," BB said. "He does that more than he runs with it. He runs when nobody defends him, like he should, but if there are receivers open down the field he throws it and he hits them. He has had a lot of big pays, more big plays on that than he has running. I'm not talking about the designed runs like he had last week against Arizona, but I mean just scramble plays. If he has to scramble for a first-down he can certainly do it but most of the time he scrambles, extends the play, finds somebody that's open and hits them for a big gain. That's more of a problem than him running, although if you don't have anybody to defend him running then he'll run." If Taylor throws an interception or two, or Shady drops the ball once or twice, the Pats blow them out.

So they have to contain Taylor, and force him to make a mistake. "He's playing well," BB said. "Yeah, he plays well. He throws the ball well. [He's] certainly part of the running game that you have to respect. Not that he runs it all of the time but he is capable of running it and making big plays and in the passing game if it's there he can hit it." But when you keep him the pocket he just isn’t as effective.

He hurts teams by getting outside the pocket and causing trouble throwing as well. "If it's not there then he has the ability to extend plays," BB said. "And he has made a lot of big plays. I'd say on extended plays, more passing than running, although he has some running, like he had the scramble against Arizona. But he has a lot of extended plays in the passing game where he buys extra time and then hits receivers downfield usually for big chunks of yardage. I'd say in all of those areas he has done a good job." He is more dangerous running than throwing, without Watkins.

With all the coaching chaos that they caused, and without Watkins, they just don't have the offense to truly challenge the Pats defense on the road. They just don't have the playmakers. The Pats will take away Shady, and keep contain in the pocket. That will shutdown their ability to win. That is really all there is too it. They just don’t have the weapons on offense. Their defense can hurt the Pats, but they struggle covering the underneath quick patterns that is the Patriots offense. Plus, the Jets killed them over the top. So it could be closer than it looks. But if Garoppolo plays like he did against the Cards it is an easy win. If he plays like he did against Miami, it is blow out.

The problem the Bills face is that the Pats offense can drop 30 on them if things go right, and the Pats defense can shut them out if things go right for them. You cannot same the same about the Bills offense and defense. Now I'm saying the Pats win 30 to Zip, the truth is somewhere in between. But I'm saying that there is no way the Bills could win 30-0. This is as a serious mismatch as I ever seen in the NFL. It the Bills weren't a Division opponent I might call it 30 to Zip. The player's familiarity with the Pats might keep them in it longer than expected. But I just don't see how the Bills can climb out of that hole.

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