PatsDraft.Com

2016 Season Blog.

Combine.

Part III.

By TOM

Greetings Pats Fans,

First off I just want to thank all the fans of this site. I have been promoting my books for sale primarily on this site. As a result, I have sold almost 500 books in the past year. Thank you for your support and patronage, both are greatly appreciated. I cannot tell you how happy it made me when I read that report. So thank you Draft fans and Patriot fans alike, and mostly thank you to all the fans of my books and website worldwide.

Garoppolo's For Everyone.

By TOM

The Jimmy-G debate has become the most fascinating story in sports. "I don't think it's going to happen," Mike Lombardi said. "I really don't. I'm not saying this because I've talked to him (BB) about it. I just know the feeling of it. I could be wrong." It is one crazy thing after another.

Schefter spoke up at two very convenient times for the Pats. First, he started the bidding in the 1st Round. BB is known to take less for players to help facilitate trades. That is clearly not going to be the case here. Especially with the worst class of QBs to come out in awhile. There is not a QB in this year's Draft who has anywhere near the value of Jimmy-G.

BB was clearly saying that I have the number one most wanted commodity this off season: a QB who showed he could lead an NFL to a win, and that he knows the extraordinary value that holds. "He wasnít going to get annihilated," Lombardi said. "The guy was too good. He was too good of a player. Iíve watched this guy practice and play for too many practices. This guy is a good player. Iím not shilling for Belichick. Iím not trying to get him more of a draft pick, because look, I know this player. This player is really good." He is best QB available, by far, this off season.

Lombardi was part of the team that drafted Jimmy-G. "Now we were in the draft room, and we thought Houston was going to pick [Jimmy-G] with their high pick in the 2nd round," Lombardi said. "Instead, they picked that guard from UCLA. What a sigh of relief that was. If Houston turns in Garoppolo's name instead of the guard from UCLA, itís a whole different ballgame. Iím telling you. People can say, 'oh donít [tell me].' Iím telling you heís worth the Patriots to hold onto him. If I was in New England, I would be telling Belichick every day thereís no way we can trade him. I know youíve got Brady. But Brady is 40 years old. We donít know where thatís going. Thereís no history that says Bradyís going to be great" 

Then he came out and said the Pats were never going to trade Garoppolo. "Heís worth the Patriots to hold on to him," Lombardi said. "If I was in New England, I would be telling Belichick every day there's no way we can trade him. I know you got Brady but Brady's 40 years old we donít know where that's going. There's no history that says Brady's going to be great." Jimmy-G's value has become more valuable in trade than on the roster (unless?).

Which means one of two things. One, that he is trying to drive up the price, and the Pats want two 1st-Rounders. Jimmy-G is a three year Vet who has started and won regular season games, played in a dozen preseason games, and lord knows how many practices, and has studied and trained for two complete Super Bowl seasons under two GOATs. 

The Browns got two 1st round picks (#8 last year, and #12 this year (PLUS! A 3rd and 4th this year, and a 2018 2nd) for a rookie QB from Division II North Dakota last year.

So the Pats started the bidding at two 1st-rounders certainly makes sense. "Heís worth a multitude of picks," Lombardi said. "Which would be take the 12th and move down. Because the player you take at 12, I donít think is going to be better than Jimmy Garoppolo. Thatís my point. Thatís called sustainable values versus situational values. Belichick makes every decision based on sustainable values. 'How am I going to look in the year 2017 and 18.' Most teams in the NFL operate under situational values, which means whatís the best thing we can do right now. And thatís where he takes advantage of the marketplace. Heís one of the few traders on the market who [understands] sustainable values, and everyone else is situational. Thatís what makes him so good." The idea that a rookie QB last year is worth more than Jimmy-G is ridiculous (and I had Wentz as the number one player on my Board).

So how are two or more 1st Rounders out of line for Jimmy-G? "I think the team he would end up on would be San Francisco," Lombardi said. "Because I know for a fact that when I was in Cleveland for the little bit of time, then when I left and went to New England, Kyle Shanahan, whom we hired, came in, and he loved Garoppolo. Loved him. I think he would have enough assets in San Francisco to make that work. Letís face it, if youíre Kyle Shanahan, and you have six years at huge money. And by the way thereís no offset clause in your contract, which is significant in the NFL. Which means that if Kyle Shanahan gets fired in year two, he gets all of his money and can double dip, which is unheard of the NFL. You might as well use sustainable values and go for the long play." Jimmy-G solves too many problems for too many HC's and GM's to expect less than two 1st, and some change (like Cleveland got).

Wouldn't it be wonderfully ironic if Cleveland offered the Pats the package of picks left over from the trade that was essentially for Wentz: pick 12, Philly's 3rd and 4th in this Draft, and Philly's 2nd in 2018. Which would also still allow Cleveland to snag Myles Garrett Number One, and still have their own 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Round picks in the next two Drafts.

That is the biggest flaw of the Draft. There is so much excitement and hype that forces GMs to buy into all the hype. A rookie QB guarantees a bad season if you have to play him. Besides a few freaks, QBs need 3 to 5 years to develop. You are better off drafting a guy with all the traits you like in a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, and then develop him for three years, like the Pats did with Garoppolo.

Or the second option, that while we all love the story of Brady believing that he can play for five more years, maybe BB doesn't believe Brady can play for five more years. We all got so caught up in the Super Bowl, and the idea that Brady could be around for five more years, that we kind of forgot about reality. Brady is not playing for five more years.

I keep thinking back to when Favre broke down in Green Bay. He was pissed. He was crazy pissed that the Packers would even imply that his NFL career was done, and that Rogers would be better to lead the Franchise in the future. Though it was true, and he couldn't handle it. He went to the Jets, and limped around as his body broke down. I can see the same thing happening here.

Maybe, if he is lucky, Brady can play for two more years. But at his age one injury could end it all for him. Then what? If Jimmy-G is gone then the Franchise is in big trouble. The Pats have the Cap cash to hold onto both for two seasons. Brady cannot play forever. This is just the reality of our fragile lives. So it might be wiser to keep both, and deal with the reality of Father Time. 

The Pats can control Garoppolo for two more years. He is under contract for one and then they can Franchise him. The Franchise would be costly, but if Brady breaks down there is no cost too high for this Franchise to keep Garoppolo. It is a risk either way. 

So the price for Jimmy-G is exorbitant, or BB just keeps his future QB hostage for another year or two. Aaron Rogers was in Green Bay for four seasons, and then became the starter when they traded Favre. Now Rogers was a 1st round pick so they had that extra year to decide. But they can Transition Jimmy-G, or Tag him after this season without destroying the Cap. 

It will make for a very uncomfortable position for the two QBs this season. But if they don't trade Garoppolo, this will be Brady's last season in New England. Jimmy-G has too much value in the trade market to keep him on the roster this season. Unless you intend to Tag him, and make him the starter in the 2018 season. 

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